Hurricane season: the official sources worth following

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November, and the eastern Pacific season from 15 May to 30 November (NHC climatology). In early October there are still about eight weeks left in the Atlantic season, and storms can form late.

When a storm is out there, information comes from everywhere: forecast apps, social media, model plots shared by people you've never heard of. The official picture comes from a short list of agencies. This guide covers who they are, what they publish, and how to read the products people most often get wrong.

The National Hurricane Center: the storm itself

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami forecasts tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. For the US coast, it's the agency that issues tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings. Its main products are:

• The Tropical Weather Outlook, which gives the chance that a disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone within 2 days and within 7 days. Low is under 40%, medium 40–60%, high over 60%. New for 2026, a gray X marks disturbances with near-zero chances at both 2 and 7 days (NHC 2026 changes).
• Public advisories, issued every six hours (5 and 11, morning and evening, Eastern time), with intermediate advisories in between while coastal watches or warnings are in effect. Each one gives the storm's position, strength, movement, and the watches and warnings in force.
• The forecast cone graphic, plus wind-speed probabilities, storm surge maps and the key messages NHC writes for each storm.

NHC can also start advisories before a storm has formed, as a "Potential Tropical Cyclone". It does this when a disturbance threatens land with tropical-storm or hurricane conditions within the next few days. That lets watches and warnings go up in time.

How to read the cone

The cone is the most shared hurricane graphic, and the most misread. It shows where the center of the storm is likely to go. It does not show how big the storm is or where the damage will be.

NHC builds the cone from circles around each forecast point. The circles are sized so that, based on the previous five years of forecast errors, the center's track stays inside the cone about two-thirds of the time (NHC: about the cone). So roughly one time in three, the center goes outside it. Strong winds, surge and heavy rain often reach far beyond the cone's edges too.

For 2026 the cone graphic changed in two ways (NOAA announcement). The cone now shows inland as well as coastal tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. It's also slightly narrower than in 2025, because recent forecasts have been more accurate. NHC is also testing an experimental version with a wider cone that covers more of the past errors.

The practical reading: if your area is near the cone, or under any watch or warning, prepare as though the storm could affect you. Don't fixate on the center line.

Watches and warnings, and their timing

Tropical alerts follow the same watch-versus-warning logic as other weather alerts, with set lead times (NWS, NHC glossary):

One detail people miss: the lead times count back from when tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin, not hurricane-force winds. Outdoor preparations get much harder once those winds arrive. So a Hurricane Warning is effectively the deadline for finishing preparations.

Storm surge has its own watch and warning because NHC describes surge as a significant threat to life along the coast, and currently the leading cause of hurricane deaths (NHC storm surge overview). A storm surge warning can apply even where the wind forecast looks modest.

Categories describe wind only

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale rates hurricanes from Category 1 (74–95 mph sustained winds) to Category 5 (157 mph or more). Categories 3 to 5 are called major hurricanes. The scale is based on wind alone. It doesn't account for storm surge, rainfall flooding or tornadoes, and a tropical storm or Category 1 can still bring dangerous surge or flooding. Read the surge and rain forecasts as well as the category.

Your local NWS office: what it means where you live

NHC forecasts the storm. Your local NWS Weather Forecast Office turns that into local detail. During a threat, local offices issue Hurricane Local Statements (listed as "Tropical Cyclone Local Statement" in NWS data) with the expected effects for their counties. They also publish Hurricane Threats and Impacts graphics, which map a reasonable worst case for wind, surge, flooding rain and tornadoes. Local offices also issue the inland Flood Watches, Flash Flood Warnings and Tornado Warnings that often come with a landfalling storm, sometimes far from the coast.

Local officials: evacuation and shelters

NWS and NHC forecast. Decisions about evacuation zones, orders and shelters are made by county and state emergency management. When local officials tell your zone to leave, Ready.gov advises leaving right away. Most coastal counties publish evacuation zone maps and run their own alert sign-ups. Your county emergency management website is the place to find both.

How the alerts reach you

Official channels come first.

• Wireless Emergency Alerts reach most phones without an app. NWS sends hurricane, storm surge, extreme wind and tornado warnings this way, and local officials can use the same system for evacuation messages.
• NOAA Weather Radio keeps working when cell networks or power are down, if you have a battery receiver.
• The FEMA app can follow NWS alerts for several locations. That's handy for a home and an evacuation destination.
• Local TV and radio carry the official information with local context.

Apps that collect official alerts, Herebeat included, can help you keep track of several places at once. They're a supplement to these channels, not a replacement.

Before the next storm

The best time to prepare is before a storm has a name. Ready.gov's hurricane page and NOAA's preparation guide cover the essentials:

1. Look up your evacuation zone and decide where you'd go and how.
2. Put together supplies for several days, including medicines, documents, and chargers or batteries.
3. Check your insurance, including whether you have flood cover, which standard policies often exclude.
4. Plan for people and pets who need extra help.
5. Bookmark the official sources above and make sure emergency alerts are switched on in your phone's settings.

With weeks left in the season, it's a good time to check these things once more.